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How a Few Hundred Dollars Could Manipulate Election Prediction Markets Touted as a truth serum for political forecasting, they’re vulnerable to distortion, sometimes at surprisingly low cost. By Liam Vaughan … The odds fell back as switched-on traders hoovered up “no” contracts in response, but the following day Polymarket still gave Mahan a 36% chance of replacing Gavin Newsom. Traditional polls had him around 4%. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-07-29/manipulation-threat-taints-kalshi-and-polymarket-claims-as-political-forecasters