Post #4205973

In Bower et al 2019 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JC015014 one learns that water or particle transport from near Africa's coast to Brazil takes 6 to 8 years. Getting from Brazil to just across the equator takes another 6 or 12 years for "warm" or "cold" particles respectively. Not as continuous flow (drip ^^) but occurs in bouts of sprints and crawls. The water flows into the Atlantic from the warm Indian Ocean or through the Drake Passage from the Pacific. But what if… the Northward pull (or the push from the South?!) has already weakened – enough? Looking at Southern winter months in the two regions' sea surface temperature anomalies. The sprints and crawls in the water transport are seen as the amplitudes of the year-on-year temperature jumps. As long as big jumps do occur every 2 or 3 years, I'd say the Northward pull (or push from the South?) is still working. But both regions stop their big jumps and damp their variability year-on-year to mere ±0.3°C. The stop occurs in 1971 for the Southern-most region and in 1984 for the region north of it. Nice 13 year coincidence, by the way, isn't it? To me, this indicates the possibility that the stop-years are the result of changed AMOC water transport, as opposed to chaotic influence from their box-region's weather. Since 1971 / 1984, the water just sits there, and gets warmed along with our AGW. But the motor that used to pull it (or pushed it) is too weak now to still cause large sprints.