Post #4025581

2026-07-22 21:36 UTC

In his work “The Collapse of Complex Societies,” Joseph Tainter argued that societies are prone to collapse when the marginal returns on additional complexity begin to plateau and then decrease. A society might find itself so complex—with so many specialists, interconnections, and layers of hierarchy to maintain—that it has few or no resources left to respond to a new problem by adding more complexity, or even by maintaining its present level of complexity. In these circumstances, a society might economize by shedding layers of complexity: losing specializations, separating previously connected components, or—my favorite—shedding layers of hierarchy.

Replies (1)

@HeavenlyPossum@kolektiva.social 2026-07-22 21:40

I think that is where global capitalist society has been heading for some time—hence a few miles of rail tunnel costing more than $16 billion to construct—but generative AI seems to have super-charged this process. It is, I anticipate, the last gasp of a struggling society to add yet another layer of complexity to solve its mounting problems. A huge quantity of very real resources are being invested in this new technology, with attendant specializations, interconnections, and bureaucratic management, to…make life worse and harder and costlier than it was before. Barring some miracle breakthrough, generative AI looks to be the first global endeavor that will nakedly, undeniably represent the peak of the curve, the point at which our investments begin to cost the world more than it invests.

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