@alisonkiddle@mathstodon.xyz The first has 1 in 2^10 chance of happening, and the second has 1 in 6^4 chance of happening. I want to compare them, so I can square root both sides, now I'm comparing 2^5 and 6^2. But I already know that 2^5 = 32 < 6^2 = 36, which means that the first is more likely.