Post #3518294

2025-11-01 09:13 UTC

@rlcw@ecoevo.social @simagick@freeradical.zone @ploum@mamot.fr @rootwyrm@weird.autos @MedeaVanamonde@beige.party @pndc@social.treehouse.systems @cstross@wandering.shop If only the rich invested, it would be fine. The problem is that tech stocks have been the only solid growth stocks for so long that a lot of pension funds are over exposed. A lot of banks have loaned money to ‘safe’ companies that are building a house of cards. When the bubble bursts, a load of pension funds will be unable to make payments. Banks will experience large numbers of loan defaults. The ones that are still solvent will need to put up interest rates to cover their losses, which will cause a massive dip in liquidity throughout the market. This leads to unrelated companies needing to reduce costs, which includes reduction in workforce. So now you also have rising unemployment and more stress on the social safety nets for those folks. If it were just rich people gambling, I’d be stockpiling popcorn.

Replies (5)

@Di4na@hachyderm.io 2025-11-01 10:17

@david_chisnall@infosec.exchange @rlcw@ecoevo.social @simagick@freeradical.zone @ploum@mamot.fr @rootwyrm@weird.autos @MedeaVanamonde@beige.party @pndc@social.treehouse.systems @cstross@wandering.shop That is the part people miss. It is not the "rich people" that prop it up. It is the Boomers demographics. Money need to be invested and pensions need to be paid in an unprecedented way. The money need to go somewhere and then come from somewhere. The pension funds have not found anything else that could "potentially" fit the bill for Boomers pressure on the system.

Open ##3518295
@chantaryu2@pataterie.ca 2025-11-01 12:50

@david_chisnall@infosec.exchange @rlcw@ecoevo.social @simagick@freeradical.zone @ploum@mamot.fr @rootwyrm@weird.autos @MedeaVanamonde@beige.party @pndc@social.treehouse.systems @cstross@wandering.shop exactly, the problem is these companies are at the top of indices and small investors buy indices, then it boosts the stocks who get higher and on even more indices. Ppl you know with 20k/100k/300k all their retirements in ETFs or mutual funds. "Common sense" in the small investor world is to "buy the s&p500" or buy another "all included diversified ETF" usually with the largest share of its exposure to US stocks.

Open ##3518308
@RealGene@hachyderm.io 2025-11-01 13:25

@david_chisnall@infosec.exchange @rlcw@ecoevo.social @simagick@freeradical.zone @ploum@mamot.fr @rootwyrm@weird.autos @MedeaVanamonde@beige.party @pndc@social.treehouse.systems @cstross@wandering.shop See: Silicon Valley Bank A *tiny* amount of sand in the gears damaged or destroyed hundreds of small companies and startups. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_Valley_Bank

Open ##3518309
@weekend_editor@mathstodon.xyz 2025-11-01 16:55

@david_chisnall@infosec.exchange @rlcw@ecoevo.social @simagick@freeradical.zone @ploum@mamot.fr @rootwyrm@weird.autos @MedeaVanamonde@beige.party @pndc@social.treehouse.systems @cstross@wandering.shop This is why over the last year I've rejiggered the retirement portfolio to have less stocks, and be less in the US for both stocks and bonds: https://www.someweekendreading.blog/weekend-portfolio-trump-2/

Open ##3518310
@rlcw@ecoevo.social 2025-11-01 17:37

@david_chisnall@infosec.exchange I see that the US pension funds work quite differently from the ones in Germany, but we do have some private ones that work in a similar fashion. How bad it will be depends a bit on how well the fund is managed. Usually the part invested in stocks in a fund like that should be for the portion of the people who still have a lot of time to go until their pension. @simagick@freeradical.zone @ploum@mamot.fr @rootwyrm@weird.autos @MedeaVanamonde@beige.party @pndc@social.treehouse.systems @cstross@wandering.shop

Open ##3518313