2024-05-01 20:56 UTC
@polotek@social.polotek.net The way you then measure this is to see when you actually finish, and then see how often the actual date fell within the range. If you are well-calibrated, this should happen 90% of the time.
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@jonm@hachyderm.io 2024-05-01 20:57
@polotek@social.polotek.net So how do you calibrate yourself? The big thing is understanding what it feels like to be 90% confident in a range. The suggested calibration is to get a bank of trivia questions where the answers are numbers, and then you quiz yourself by providing two numbers you are 90% sure bracket the correct answer.