Post #2924458
2026-05-28 13:51 UTC
hey awful, a Question:
do any of y’all know if there’s a decent writeup of the rationalist/hanson/thiel pre-history of prediction markets (a la polymarket etc) before they hit the much-heightened popularity of the last ~18mo?
Replies (3)
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@froztbyte@awful.systems 2026-05-28 14:05
and since it’s likely that there is no writeup, I am now already starting with “polymarket site:lesswrong.com” we all know the abyss would get upset if I don’t visit enough
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@Evinceo@awful.systems 2026-05-28 15:03
Cyberlibertarianism covers it.
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@CinnasVerses@awful.systems 2026-05-28 15:12
Did you try RationalWiki? Read it next to Taleb’s The Black Swan patiently explaining to clever but inexperienced young men that you cannot perfectly predict the future just diversify and prepare for different scenarios. A lot of rats give Robin Hanson credit for things which are much older (prediction markets for elections are recorded back to the 16th century, The Great Filter was huge in Cold War pop culture).