Post #2849798

The economics of it don’t add up and the growth rate of the curve of improvement over time has already significativelly fallen which looking at the historical curves for other technologies is a very strong indication that it’s approaching the limits of how far it will go. So at both levels it all looks like a massive bet in the wrong horse that’s turning out not to be a winner. As I see it, the way Microsoft and other AI investors are going at it is to try and create a beach-head for it via hype, branding and lock-in in the expectation that something will come along at some point from the companies they invested in that is actually a genuine breakthrough that uses all the computing capacity created with their investment money. I think that the reason why from the point of view of the public the AI adoption feels wrong is because it’s almost entirelly top-down, driven by marketing techniques and against the current. Certainly to me this feel a lot like the hype part of the cycle for the Segway, only with 100x or 1000x more investment money behind it.