Post #2421840

Climate change functions here as a shift in the background forcing under which every one of these coupled systems operates. It changes probability distributions. It increases covariance across domains that used to fail independently of each other. It erodes slack. Failures that once arrived one at a time synchronize. A local shock that would previously have stayed local propagates into cascade. The literature on this is explicit — for example Brovkin et al. (2021) and Lawrence et al. (2020) — but the grammar is what matters. Climate drives. It loads the dice. It does not cause in the billiard-ball sense we prefer for storytelling. https://narrativemachines.substack.com/p/the-cascade-part-1