Post #2400609

Jack Clark puts 60% on fully automated AI R&D by end of 2028, 30% by 2027. The case: benchmarks for every sub-skill trending up — coding (SWE-Bench ~2% → 93.9%), training-loop optimization (2.9x → 52x speedup, human 4x baseline passed three generations back), #METR time horizons (~30s in 2022 to ~12h today). The 30-vs-60 gap is a bet on how often a year-scale human insight still cracks a paradigm. https://benjaminhan.net/posts/20260508-import-ai-455-automating-ai-research/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social #AI #AGI #AIsafety #FutureOfWork