Post #2381161
2026-05-11 06:23 UTC
Replies (2)
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@lagrangeinterpolator@awful.systems 2026-05-11 11:00
The last several years have been the monkey’s paw moment for rationalists, where they keep getting what they want and realizing it’s actually bad. As for why they keep getting what they want, just look at who’s funding them. (Also featuring a “Chinese curse” that isn’t actually a phrase in Chinese. At least it’s not “may you live in interesting times”.)
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@scruiser@awful.systems 2026-05-11 22:52
The prediction markets seem to have all the basic problems that sneerclubbers: problems with resolution mechanisms, all sorts of insider trading and gaming the market, people using it for gambling… Various prediction markets have made various half-assed attempts at solutions, but so far nothing seems to actually work well enough to make prediction markets nearly as useful as rationalists expected.