2026-04-24 16:43 UTC
An interesting aspect of human nature and probability, now that prediction markets are so prevalent in news coverage….
If the odds of something are 20% and it happens anyway, it doesn’t make it “wrong.”
It means it was a 1/5 chance and we got the 1.
Otherwise it would be 0%.
Replies (1)
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@Lilysea@aus.social 2026-04-24 17:31
@GoodAaron@mastodon.social I once had a doctor tell me "You can't get [this side effect] from [this medication], the product information says that only 6% of patients who take [this medication] get [this side effect]!"