Post #2226774
2025-04-02 13:51 UTC
New paper! We develop a #Bayesian statistical model to better predict future publishing counts by an institution w/ a particular publisher and the associated #APCs. This is important because any #OpenAccess negotiation depends heavily on the expected publication output.
https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.24981
Replies (1)
-
@eschares@scholar.social 2025-04-02 13:53
Problem: when negotiating OA agreements, libraries and publishers need to the predict number of publications in future years. Current ways of averaging or trendlines can be inaccurate, causing credits to run out mid-year. Our model takes 5 years of journal-level corresponding authored pub counts and predicts the distr of articles in year n+1 using Poisson, pooling info across journals. Article counts are by jnl-year, then summed to predict a total distr with uncertainty beyond a point estimate.