Post #1799075

2026-04-29 12:10 UTC

@sue I think you’re right. My prediction has been that when the bubble bursts, some company that is so big we didn’t think they could possibly fail, will in fact fail. I don’t mean one of the AI companies. I mean something like oracle, ibm, adobe, etc. Some company that we don’t realise is so perilously out over their skis that when AI prices jump, they’ll be wiped out: Unable to deliver their core business, hire to replace lost talent, nor pay the AI bills any longer. I’m not guessing which one. I’m not that smart. But I think there’s gonna be a Lehman Brothers of the AI bubble, and then all hell breaks loose.

Replies (2)

@DamonHD@mastodon.social 2026-04-29 13:28

@paco @sue Note that in the case of Lehman's, which may be relevant here too, it was more the fall guy than the one that "deserved" to fail through especially egregious behaviour... Full disclosure: LB was a client for many years and I enjoyed my work there.

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@openrisk@mastodon.social 2026-04-29 14:32

@paco @sue looking for analogies with the financial crisis there *is* a real estate angle to "AI", all the data center REITs 🤣 But this episode doesn't seem to follow previous patterns. We had some "bailouts" already, Twitter was folded into xAI then into SpaceX, also Intel. The overall tech sector is both too big to fail (maybe the only thing going for the US) and has amassed enormous capital that is ultimately anchored in near total oligopoly. So whatever happens... it will be different

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