Post #1694625
2026-04-05 18:28 UTC
So, when you look at a new technology, think: is it going to be a hovercraft or a helicopter - useful, but niche? That's a decent outcome but not an exciting one. Will it fall by the wayside entirely (like waveguides as an alternative to copper phone lines, rapidly eclipsed by optical fibre)? Or will it genuinely be useful? I would argue that the latter only becomes clear after a few years.
Replies (2)
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@bsdphk@fosstodon.org 2026-04-05 21:08
@drmikepj Just because it is nit-picking-sunday: Strictly speaking optical fiber is a wave-guide :-) And if you want an astonishing read: Lookup the "WT4" system in BSTJ :-)
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@FediThing@social.chinwag.org 2026-04-06 12:11
@drmikepj Also, even if something is theoretically useful, it usually has to get cheap enough for widespread use in order to be truly revolutionary. Often a technically worse technology can become dominant because it is much cheaper for people to buy it or use it. There's a weird lag where early adopters will focus entirely on the expensive stuff and miss the truly revolutionary moments when simpler/older tech becomes cheap enough for everyone.