Post #1626195

2026-03-22 12:46 UTC

@cstross really does not change the fact that there never was any way to "win" this Iran War. You just have to look at this size, terrain, population layout of Iran compared to Iraq 2003 to get an idea of what sort of invasion force would have been necessary. And there aren't any neighbors to Iran eager to become an invasion staging area. So ... Iran will win. Period. They'll get bombed and stuff, and then ... they'll win.

Replies (2)

@cstross__dup_483@wandering.shop 2026-03-22 12:54

@isaackuo@spacey.space Yep. For people who've never looked at a map (most Americans, apparently), my synopsis is, "Iran is Mordor". Big-ass empire surrounded on all sides by water or mountains. Also, it's on the other side of the world from the USA. Also-also, the littoral approaches are all naval death-traps. There's a REASON the Persian Empire didn't get conquered very often, and it's geopolitics!

Open ##715044
@graydon@canada.masto.host 2026-03-22 16:34

@isaackuo @cstross The US victory conditions are for the Islamic Republic to go away. (US elite consensus that it's illegitimate, generational offense at daring to claim ownership of oil, etc.) They don't need to be Napoleon and be lauded as a conqueror. Take a look at Iran on Google Maps; switch on the traffic. Sparse transportation network, very concentrated; single export economy. Think kinetic sanctions; blow up the ability to export oil and the roads over the mountains. Mine the ports.

Open ##1626200