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@Brad_Rosenheim@climatejustice.social

2026-03-07 12:25 UTC

@micefearboggis I think one area where climate science could improve is recognizing when we have crossed a threshold, initiated a tipping point. Geologically, a "step change" in climate variability will not look like a step function on human-relevant time scales. It will still take time. So establishing clear methods that recognize acceleration is a good start. I also think, with more complex computing power, our models can ingest more data and physical parameterizations that approach physical law, and we may be able to start recognizing the places on Earth where we need to make more frequent, focused measurements to understanding thresholds and tipping points. One example of this is the measurements along transects across the subtropical and subpolar North Atlantic to try to ascertain step changes in the NADW formation and North Atlantic Gyre. We have seen some trends, but no step changes so far (although some models say they are within the realm of possibility).

Replies (1)

  • @micefearboggis@fediscience.org 2026-03-07 14:44

    @Brad_Rosenheim Yes! Monitoring of tipping points and earth system feedbacks would be good to do. I looked through the 374 page tipping points report (https://global-tipping-points.org/) that came out before COP last year and saw one example of something actually being measured. Most of the tipping points remained somewhat nebulous, modelled risks, schematics etc. Occasionally, a paper will come out with a suggestion, but I don't know of anyone doing routine monitoring of tipping points, at least not the way we monitor global temperature, say. Probably ignorance on my part. However, it seems difficult too. Part of the difficulty is the availability of obs. Part of the difficulty is communication. Part of the difficulty is time scales which can be long with important changes stretched out over decades. Part of the difficulty is that, in many cases, we won't know when we've passed a tipping point even if we're watching it very closely.

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