Post by @ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social

2026-05-08 06:53 UTC

Most of the Gulf and western powers were certain that the IRGC in Tehran would crumble under the weight of the Israeli-American offensive against the country. As you all know, that hasn't exactly panned out. Some 4 million barrels of crude per day pass through the Bab El Mandeb. It has always been a strategic oil corridor but even more so now. And now there is a geopolitical race for this strait, with the realization that the reliability of the Hormuz is going to be compromised for a while.

Replies (2)

@ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social 2026-05-08 06:58

But the hassle with the Bab El Mandeb strait? Those pesky Houthis and their rockets. Besides their permanent presence as an Iranian proxy in the region, in recent years they've been firing at vessels originating from countries that support Israel. If the Washington Post's report about the KSA lobbying for the US to attack Iran is accurate, then the KSA's primary motivation was probably finding a conduit for its oil in the Hormuz with no risk of rockets firing at them. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/02/28/trump-iran-decision-saudi-arabia-israel/

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@DiogoConstantino@masto.pt 2026-05-08 08:04

@ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social I really don't think most western powers had that opinion, I don't even think that was consensual opinion inside the USA.

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