2026-02-12 23:20 UTC
@nolan@toot.cafe I'm not much into betting, but I wonder if you'd like to make a prediction.
What do you think is the probability that six months from now, you would be able to prompt an LLM to create a program with the following constraints?
- Complexity on the order of IndexedDB
- Not reimplementing something that already exists (I have several reasons for this constraint)
- Accordingly, not driven off of a pre-existing test suite
- High enough quality that you would risk your family's privacy and security on it
- Maintainable code (either by human or further LLMs)
- Takes at most a workday for prompting + manual fixups
- API costs of at most $500
Or, how far out do you think it would be before this seems 90% likely to work?
(Feel free to quibble with any of my constraints. I chose those because that's what it would take to impress me.)
Replies (1)
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@nolan@toot.cafe 2026-02-13 16:43
@varx@infosec.exchange I think if you're not impressed by my IndexedDB example, or the C compiler or other browser examples, then you might not be impressed by an experiment with much more nebulous goals. 🙂 I propose we agree to disagree and check back in a year!