Post #1362091

2026-04-04 14:44 UTC

Eliezer is trying to get around that with some weird conditions and game on the prediction market question: > This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027. All trades on this market will be rolled back on Jan 1st, 2027. However, up until that point, any profit or loss you make on this market will be reflected in your current wealth; which means that purely profit-interested traders can make temporary profits on this market, and use them to fund other permanent bets that may be profitable; via correctly anticipating future shifts in prices among people who do bet their beliefs on this important question, buying low from them and selling high to them. I don't think that actually helps. But Eliezer is committed to prediction markets being useful on a nearly ideological level, so he has to try to come up with weird complicated strategies to try to get around their fundamental limits.

Replies (3)

@CinnasVerses@awful.systems 2026-04-04 16:57

It feels like a teenaged argument about Batman v. Superman or the *USS Enterprise* v. a Star Destroyer. I think many LessWrongers are not serious about the belief system as something to act on, but the problem is that when they are serious you get Ziz Lasota. Its also similar to how they love markets in theory, but don't want to start a business or make speculative investments.

Open ##1362092
@istewart@awful.systems 2026-04-04 17:44

> prediction markets being useful on a nearly ideological level At this point, I would say prediction markets are now an explicit ideological plank of what's left of the libertarian movement. Darkly amusing that they're desperately trying to pump life and legitimacy into something the GW Bush administration thought was too corrupt to use.

Open ##1362093
@lurker@awful.systems 2026-04-04 19:21

If you have to set up that many rules to get around the inherent flaw of “gambling on everyone’s lives” just run a normal ass poll. gets rid of unnecessary financial incentives

Open ##1362094