Post #1261286

2026-03-27 13:34 UTC

@kevlin The problem with saying between 10 and 15, is that if they then arrive between 09:50 and 10:00, there will be people who'll complain that they arrived "too early", and if you then instead say between 09:00 and 15:00, then people will complain the window is too wide and "imprecise". The fake(*) precision is part of the message, that it's specific to your delivery and that you shouldn't bother contacting customer service to get a real time window. *: see next reply...

Replies (3)

@mrotteveel@mstdn.social 2026-03-27 13:40

@kevlin *) And even though the window is very wide, it generally isn't fake. In a lot of cases it's based on the actual historic performance of deliveries to your address or neighbourhood. If it's so wide, it usually means the delivery van covers a wide area and the actual route differs too much between days. For my address, deliveries through PostNL are usually reported with an initial window of one or two hours, and updates (through their app) do get more specific and accurate.

Open ##1261287
@bellinghman@wandering.shop 2026-03-27 13:55

@mrotteveel @kevlin Indeed. That 09:50 figure being to the nearest 5 minutes is not, of itself, a problem. It will be calculated on the basis of the courier leaving the depot at time x, and having a number of journey segments of predictable length. So it's the earliest time that it might arrive. The 2 hour, or 5 hour, finger-in-the-air value? Yeah, it's adding that on and keeping the precision that's the problem The expected arrival curve is nothing like a Bell curve

Open ##1261290
@kevlin@mastodon.social 2026-03-27 17:24

@mrotteveel The probability of arrival between 09:50 and 10:00 is comparable to that of 09:30 and 09:50, so perhaps they should round down. Then again, the probability of arrival between 09:30 and 09:50 is... "You're delivery will arrive today (probably)" covers, I think, most eventualities.

Open ##1261294