Post #1261258
2026-03-24 17:37 UTC
I still remember a moment about 10 years ago (note that I say "about 10 years ago" and not "about 3652 days ago") when a project manager showed me a plan that showed me progress on a task that had been estimated at around 2 months.
"We're 52.5% complete on this task," she told me.
That many significant figures on something as woolly as progress on an estimated multi-person task is just noise.
"There *is* a chance you might be about half done, but even that's optimistic," I said.
Replies (1)
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@kevlin@mastodon.social 2026-03-24 17:40
You see this kind of nonsense all the time in the press as well as project progress or company performance discussions, with people reading false meaning into minor percentage point differences, differences that would be swallowed up if anyone took the time to put error bars on their numbers.